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The Cornerhold Journal
Vol. I · No. 1Nationwide edition · Free
MarketsLatest, Oct 23
10-year Treasury5.00%up 0.04
SOFR3.90%up 0.02
30-year mortgage rate7.32%down 0.08
CMBS delinquency8.02%up 0.17
U.S. office vacancy18.2%down 0.1
Sources: U.S. Treasury, daily par yield curve rates, Oct 23 (10-year Treasury); Federal Reserve Bank of New York, SOFR, Oct 22 (SOFR); Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Oct 22 (30-year mortgage rate); Trepp, Sep 30 (CMBS delinquency); CBRE, Q3 2026 U.S. Office Market Report, Sep 30 (U.S. office vacancy)
Capital markets
Higher long rates are slowing the deal recovery, the biggest landlords and brokers say
Earnings calls showed solid leasing in places, but buyers and lenders are now pricing deals off a 10-year Treasury near 5 percent.
The 10-year Treasury yield, a common benchmark for fixed-rate commercial loans, closed Friday at 5.00 percent, according to Treasury Department data. It reached 5.31 percent on Oct. 5, its highest close of the month so far.
On third-quarter earnings calls last week, the largest owners and service firms described the same strain. Blackstone said a historic jump in bond yields raised its cost of capital and weighed on deal activity, and its quarterly profit fell a little more than 9 percent, Commercial Observer reported. SL Green said rates had swung about 150 basis points during the year and put the impact on its results for the back half of the year at 25 cents.
CBRE still reported U.S. property sales up 37 percent in the quarter, according to CRE Daily's summary of its results. But its chief executive warned that rate volatility could keep investors on the sidelines, possibly until the second half of 2027, and CRE Daily reported that some deals are being repriced, canceled or turned into refinancings.
Sources: Commercial Observer, Oct 25, 2026; CRE Daily, Oct 23, 2026; U.S. Treasury, daily par yield curve rates, Oct 23, 2026
Industrial demand
Warehouse leasing posts its busiest quarter since 2022 as data center suppliers take space
National reports out Friday show demand returning, though the gains are uneven by building size.
Tenants signed 202.6 million square feet of industrial leases from July through September, up 38.5 percent from a year earlier and the most in any quarter since 2022, according to JLL data reported by Bisnow. JLL put national vacancy at 6.8 percent, down 80 basis points in a year. CBRE, which measures the market differently, reported vacancy of 6.4 percent and net absorption of 104.6 million square feet, its highest quarterly total since the fourth quarter of 2022.
Logistics firms are still the biggest users, but makers of construction materials and companies in power, communications and energy are taking a larger share, much of it tied to data center construction, Bisnow reported. Savills counted 69 million square feet of large-block leases signed by data-center-related businesses from the third quarter of 2024 through the second quarter of 2026.
CoStar's index of new industrial leases has returned to its historical peak while its renewal index has fallen, Connect CRE reported. A CoStar analyst cautioned that new leases do not turn into absorption one for one, because tenants who relocate leave space behind, and that midsize buildings still face excess supply.
For ownersOwners of midsize or older warehouses may want to compare their power and loading specs with what data center suppliers ask for before the next renewal talk.
Sources: Bisnow, Oct 23, 2026; CBRE, Q3 2026 U.S. Industrial and Logistics Market Report, Oct 23, 2026; Connect CRE, Oct 23, 2026
Supply chains
Electrical gear for large projects can take years to arrive, data center builders say
Transformers, switchgear and chillers are booked far ahead, and even basic materials like structural steel are slow to arrive.
Industry insiders at a Bisnow data center conference in Dallas this month said transformers can take up to three years to arrive, backup generators more than a year, and chillers, switchgear and backup power systems 12 to 18 months, Bisnow reported Sunday. Gas turbines can take a decade or more.
Basic materials are slow too: panelists cited six to eight months for optical fiber and about a year for structural steel. Builders are ordering long-lead equipment before designs are final or stockpiling it, which ties up cash and can raise project costs, according to the report.
For ownersPlanning a power upgrade, a new chiller or a large EV charging project? Ask your engineer for current lead times before you sign leases that depend on the work.
Source: Bisnow, Oct 25, 2026